As I mentioned yesterday, there were several miscalculations that Putin had in his invasion of Ukraine. He had underestimated the resistance from ordinary citizens of Ukraine and across the world.
Nonetheless, given Russia’s overwhelming forces and Mr Putin’s ruthless nature, expect the invaders to make gains in the coming days. The attacks on Kyiv will grow fiercer. One consequence of that? Growing anger in the West—among ordinary people as well as national leaders. More military gear, including, remarkably, anti-tank rockets and Stinger missiles from Germany, is heading to Ukraine. Sanctions on Russia are becoming more severe. Beyond the exclusion of some Russian banks from the SWIFT system, more serious are the efforts by Europe and America to stop Russia’s central bank accessing much of its $600bn-plus in foreign reserves. Watch on Monday how markets react to that. It’s unlikely to be pretty for Russia, especially the rouble. Some sort of Russian retaliation towards the West should be expected. The price of oil and gas could yet surge.
The Economist’s
Adam Roberts, Digital Editor
Now its currency tumbled 40% while interest rates climbed 20%. Such rough economic fallout will surely make ordinary Russians grow angry at Putin and bolder in their opposition to this war. Ukraine is now urging Visa and Mastercard to suspend the facilitation of payments in Russia, further hurting its people.
And apparently some people in the US are preparing for a possible nuclear war, giving rise to the Cold War era fear harbored by people on both sides of the Atlantic for decades before the fall of USSR.
On the home front, the price of liquefied petroleum gas—the main fuel for cooking in Filipino homes—is now increasing by at least PHP 7 per kg = PHP 77 more for an 11kg tank. I think it has now gone above PHP 1000 per 11kg tank when a few months ago it was just at PHP 700+. The Department of Energy said its petition to suspend the excise tax on fuels is still pending in Congress, the delegates of which are already busy campaigning. If we don’t halt the excise taxes on the fuels, the cost of goods and services would skyrocket in the next week or two.
The market volatility would send valuations askew again and some deals would have to be delayed given the instability. I had been busy scanning the news for developments and how the markets are behaving since it is now determining the angles for the news I should be aiming for.
With this so much tension in the world today (including the escalating deaths in HK due to a belated spike in Covid cases), my colleague now asked me is the apocalypse here now?
If such is the case, I’m glad I’m out of my former hellhole so I can concentrate on my remaining time on earth with my daughters. I was chatting with a fellow editor-journo who told me he is escaping from the city and is moving his family to Sta. Rosa, Laguna. His house will be finished this week and they will start moving next week. Good for you, I told him. I will be following you but further down south because I’m tired of the city too. If the world is going to end, at least we will be more comfortable than being stuck in the city and Metro Manila is the worst place to be during an apocalypse. EDSA is already an Armageddon in itself.
But before the world ends, I have a press conference to attend on Thursday in Makati and our Manila reporter and I would be working again in a coffee shop somewhere near the company HQ that will hold the conference. Face to face meetings are coming back and the government is going to bring down the Covid Alert Level to number 1 starting tomorrow. They finally decided to live with Covid as the new normal instead of following China’s/HK’s stance of zero-Covid policy.
Metro Manila and 38 other areas will be under Alert Level 1 from March 1-15
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Hopefully face to face schooling will follow because the children are really suffering from two years of remote learning. These are the “lost years” for them.
And before the world ends, I still have transcriptions to finish. Hopefully I can publish two stories tomorrow.
And oh, let me go diving first. It’s so freaking hot these days.
