“Courage will now be your best defence against the storm that is at hand-—that and such hope as I bring.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
I had sent messages to older friends who were high ranking government officials, CEOs, and VPs who were imprisoned during martial law. I asked for forgiveness, said sorry and that I never thought I would see another Marcos presidency.
One of them said:
“Hi CallMeCreation. Thank you for your touching note. Life is just the way it is. We fight a good fight, sometimes we lose and sometimes we win. The important thing is we don’t lose the will to fight. To fight for a better future. Am pretty sure those who stood with their conviction during Martial law understand that it will be a continuing advocacy for a better PH. Thanks again.”
The other one said: There’s nothing to forgive. We just need to continue to help our country.
My tears couldn’t stop flowing. This is the only election that I was emotionally invested in and the only one I truly cared about because it is pivotal. Now we are on our road to hell.
I just attended a briefing on private equity deals in Southeast Asia this morning. The speaker said (paraphrased):
The Philippines has never been the first port of call when it comes to private equity deals (compared to Singapore, Indonesia). As for the impact of the latest political developments on FDI, FFI…your guess is as good as mine.
This is as bad as it gets. The other webinar I attended this afternoon was about renewable energy in Southeast Asia and of course they had to discuss the Philippine market. The panelists had an embarrassed laugh of some sort and one of them said, “There’s a new president now but he’s not exactly new as they had been controlling the Philippines for years now…” and then they said they do not know in what direction the policies will go.
Well, because he doesn’t have any platform. He doesn’t have any plans. Nothing.
And today the Philippines received its first investment downgrade. It would soon be a series of downgrades.
Even the Philippine Stock Exchange couldn’t handle the madness today. The market fell 3% at some point today and is now in bear territory (I think). The website crashed and for an hour it was like that.
My siblings (two economists) and I were chatting about the macroeconomic implications and my sister asked what is the possibility of us entering stagflation.
I said:
“There are too many headwinds. The companies are holding out on expansion, no growth seen in the private sector. The companies we interviewed said there are new orders, no new product launches, only core products. They’re holding cash because that’s the one they will use to buy raw materials as it is risky to borrow for capex due to climbing interest rates. We are heading for stagflation. Liquidity is the best policy. This is why I’m not buying a new car and will just have the Crosswind have cosmetic repairs since it’s not the best time to have a mortgage. I don’t know how long the BSP can keep keep its monetary policy stance when the USTr is rising, the peso is weakening.“
“Good luck to Filipino consumers because of the high commodity prices in the world market…palm oil, grains…because of supply chain disruptions. Even if you keep importing rice to lower the cost to fulfill BBM’s campaign promise of PHP 20/kilo rice, you have to remember we’re not the world’s biggest importer of rice (ergo we cannot dictate the price)—it’s China and it’s hoarding supplies. The run up in palm oil prices is a result of the protectionist stance of Indonesia because they banned palm oil exports to keep local prices stable. All countries are being protectionist now due to supply issues.“
Soon there will be capital flight.
This is scary. The vote for Leni is not just for ego and not just to fight Marcos’ evil reign. It is also the fight for investor confidence, better macroeconomic policies.
It’s just so sad that all the things I fought for all my life have come to naught. I taught high school students in Mindoro so they can enter UP, climbed mountains in Batangas to fight for farmers’ lands, climbed mountains for indigenous people so they can have a better shot in life… Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Tiktok took that all away.
It’s exhausting.
Many will lose their jobs, many will go hungry. But of course, they do not understand the implications of what they did. You tried to explain to them, but then they just have thrown dirt at your face and accuse you of elitism and “respect my opinion” shit.
Now they’re bringing you down with them.
It was a struggle editing today. I cried. I slept. Tried to finish tasks at hand. I need a mental health break (because you know, heartbreak is heartbreak) but I can’t because I’m a manager and I can’t just be a wuss.
I worked through my heartbreak for 15 months. How many heartbreaks can I take? How much more can I endure? How many dark tunnels must I walk through?
Whenever I get upset, I go back to my favorite books for comfort.
‘But in the end it’s only a passing thing, this shadow; even darkness must pass.’ – Samwise Gamgee
J.R.R. Tolkien
