… Meanwhile, PLDT says…

PLDT Chairman Manuel Pangilinan addressing fellow shareholders today during the annual meeting. Photo by Callmecreation.com

… There is still no global standard yet for 5G so commercial roll out may still be in 2020. PLDT [PSE:TEL] Chairman Manuel Pangilinan said they have not yet figured out if by 2019 they would still prioritize the installation of fixed lines (fiber) or concentrate on 5G to bring broadband to customers. For 2018, PLDT will still continue with its fiber rollout but after that is still going to be internally discussed within the group.

You see, PLDT has earmarked PHP 58bn (USD 1.1bn) for capital expenditures for 2018 alone. It had to sell down its stake in Rocket Internet to partly finance this capex. It can’t add more to its outstanding debts and Pangilinan said they must maintain their debt/EBITDA at 2. The company is in a quandary as to how it will keep its financials healthy in a capital-intensive industry that is constantly changing. In a briefing last year, Pangilinan said that PLDT has to study how it can harness 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) and they still have to figure out how they can finance its capex down the line to keep up with these new tech.

The company’s goals for the next 12 months are:

And I didn’t get much meat from that.

5G in the Philippines

Technically, 5G technology in the Philippines is already here. Globe Telecom launched it last week with much fanfare that I thought its commercial rollout will start soon.

I was wrong. It’ll be rolled out in 2Q2019 first for prepaid home broadband customers.

Because, according to Globe President Ernet Cu, the potential for 5G application is limited in a mobile phone so it makes more sense to launch it first for home broadband users. This will also eliminate the need for Globe to lay down more copper wires or fiberoptic cables to reach more customers. All they have to do is to build on top of exisiting cellular towers by installing Massive MIMO on them. Chief Technology Officer Gil Genio said 5G will only be launched in cities because there should be a tower every 250m or so, hence, density is the key for good coverage.

I’m skeptical. We still have sketchy Globe signal in my mom’s house in UP Los Baños, which is not exactly a rural area. So how in the world can Globe boast 2 Gbps over the air?

In a country where the only players that matter are PLDT and Globe? Where the system of infrastructure is stuck in the 20th Century (no third-party tower operators like in…well… like the rest of the world)? Good luck.

Until a third player comes in or PLDT relents and becomes amenable to having third-party tower operators, we are stuck with having 20,000 cellular towers nationwide, serving 106m Filipinos spread out across 7,700 islands. In contrast, Vietnam has 50,000 cellular towers for its 80m citizens. To be fair to Globe, it is open to selling its towers and just lease from tower operators so that much of its capex would be freed and diverted to improving customer experience.

As DICT Secretary Rio said, there should be at least 2.5 carriers in each tower for a tower operator to be viable. Globe and a third telco player makes only 2; we need PLDT to be on board.

Let’s see.

Disclaimer: I both cover Globe and PLDT. My mobile operator is Smart (PLDT) while my home broadband is Globe.