Do not catch a falling knife

This was bloodier in the morning.

I was late. I just bought some ETF stocks and mutual fund units three days ago because I completely forgot that the US elections was yesterday (technically two days ago). I thought I was able to buy FMETF cheaply at PHP 14.5 per share but because of the shitshow that was yesterday, that price became expensive given that the PSEi was menstruating today. I didn’t have funds to buy more in time because I emptied my COL account three days ago. And because I was so busy this morning with other things, I forgot to transfer additional funds when the market opened and do some bargain hunting. 🤦🏻‍♀️ FMETF dropped to PHP 11.8 apiece.

I was able to transfer money at noon so I can have some retail therapy by bidding for ETF shares at PHP 11.5 because I’m a greedy biatch. But nope, it went back up at PHP 13.0 and now I have stranded funds in my COL account.

But I think the market already digested the Trump victory and the slower-than-expected GDP growth of the Philippines for 3Q24 that was announced today. I guess another interest rate cut by the BSP is in order after the US Fed has done its bit—a market-anticipated rate cut in the coming days. This unlikely will send share prices to reach the lows of today so I lost that narrow window for market correction. 😑

But now with a Trump victory, we don’t know if it’s still wise of the Feds to do the cut.You see, the King of Tariffs, as he calls himself, will cause imported goods to go up, pushing prices back up in the US. But that’s the least of the US and rest of the world’s worries…

War-monger Trump will not hesitate to light the fires in the Middle East, while Ukraine will completely be taken over by Russia given the Ugly Orange One’s ties to the Russians. Prices of wheat and cooking oil (rapeseed, etc) that are sourced from Ukraine will go up once again. Ukraine is the seventh largest exporter of wheat and third largest exporter or rapeseed. It’s also a major producer of corn and barley. The Ukraine invasion posed a lot of problems for Monde Nissin when it had to scramble for alternative sources of raw materials for its products. It resisted price increases because Lucky Me noodles is a staple in more than 90% of Filipino homes, cutting across economic classes. That’s how a Trump geopolitical crisis affects countries.

If the Middle East situation worsens because Trump may light a fuse somewhere there, oil prices will again shoot up, hitting net oil importers like the Philippines.

China is also a collateral damage. The world’s second-largest economy is suffering from a protracted economic downturn since its draconian handling of Covid. It hasn’t also recovered from the real estate crisis. A fresh round of economic trade embargos by the US will send its economy hurtling down. Those that have depended on China for exports of commodities (I’m looking at you, Southeast Asia) and durable goods will get hurt.

The situation in the West Philippine Sea and across Taiwan Strait will become more volatile and a real war could erupt under perfect chaotic conditions. Throw Kim Jong-il into the mix—et voila!

One thing is clear: Those who thought or hoped the first Trump term was an aberration were wrong. Overnight, America looks like a different kind of superpower: more isolationist and less predictable. The stakes, from the Middle East and Ukraine to global trade and climate change, could not be higher.

The New York Times

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