This is why our global CEO is warning us that the recession will be severe. The inverted yield curve has been deeper than in the tech bust of early 2000 and the global financial crisis. It has been deepest since the 1980s.
In the past, the inverted yield curves indicated that this will be followed by a recession. It will just be a question of how deep and long the recession will be. This graph shows a stock market crash will follow. The problem with this cycle is that inflation has been very sticky and there are no signs yet that the US Fed will stop hiking rates. The supply chain woes have supposedly been eased after Covid lockdowns and this inflation is supply-side, not demand-side so this should have started easing but it has not. It’s still so stubborn. The thing is, some macro indicators don’t make sense yet like jobs data indicate that unemployment has gone down despite the lay-offs in the tech sector. But then, how different is this inverted yield curve from others? Will this be the first time that an inverted yield curve will not be followed by a recession?
Meanwhile, I was so anxiety-ridden today that I woke up at 4:30 am for no apparent reason probably except for stomach acids. Yesterday, I had the painful job of saying to all candidates that we had called off the search for a fulltime reporter and even hiring freelancers is an uphill climb for me. I even had them go through difficult tests. One candidate from Boston practically begged to take her in because she liked how I mentored her during the test and that she will be taking care of her visa to HK since she can freelance there.
I didn’t know what to do with my hands. This anxiety is wreaking havoc in my gut.
As I said a few days ago, art calms me down. That’s why I brought my art materials for times like this. I finished this piece by inking it with Uni Pin fine liner. Perhaps I should bring my sketchbook today to my meetings.
Stopped at Maxwell on my way to the hotel, where I will continue working. I don’t want to work at my office that is like a refrigerator. I don’t know why SG offices need to lower the temps to the depths of winter. ❄️
