So the economist of a global bank told me today that Thailand will take a huge battering this year given that tourism is sooooo down plus global trade is weak, hence, it will continue to register huge current account deficits. Its currency would be the worst performing one this year in the region given that its economy is heavily dependent on external demand like tourism and exports. It is also hurting from the spike in oil since it is also a net importer of petroleum.
Meanwhile, the Philippines—which has been leaning heavily on internal/domestic demand to run its economy—will a bit insulated but with a caveat: its consumer demand will be dampened by a quickening of inflation. The food basket makes up a huge part of of its CPI and it will surely take a hit from the rise in fuel and electricity. Our fuel and power are not subsidized by the government so the full effect of the rise in world market prices easily hurts us. We have the highest power cost in Asia after Japan because we bear the full weight of market prices. Indonesia, which has an inflation rate of 2% mainly due to govt subsidies on fuel/power, will be the least affected by the spike because of this artificial stability in costs of goods and services. But this is at the expense of its national budget that would come under strain—public spending for services and infrastructure would be sacrificed. Malaysia to some extent will enjoy the rise in oil prices and super cycle in semiconductors but at the same time it would have to absorb the costs of these rise in commodities since it also subsidizes fuel and power.
As I said yesterday, the spike in commodity prices will redound to other industries.
Company bet on decline in prices but market has surged
This affects all heavy industries dependent on steel and other alloys. If you’re a trader, it’s nerve wracking to short your position these days. Its suicide. Wild, wild market that we have now.
Despite sleeping late last night because of last-minute portrait sketching exercises (and waking up in the middle of the night because I was angry), I had a surprisingly good sleep thereafter so I was able to wake up in a good disposition. I was able to attend back-to-back meetings today without feeling exhausted and got a couple of stories.
I’m not good at drawing or whatever I’m doing on paper but it makes me feel great. I like it that I see progress in whatever I’m doing. Expressing myself in colors. Seeing colors. Dipping the brush in pans of colors…it’s like creating a world from what’s inside my head. Whatever I draw doesn’t have to be a replica of what I’m seeing but rather whatever I put on paper is what I see in my head or what my heart tells me I feel I should put on paper.
Here we are, my gay friend, K, and I are chatting and we’re talking about visiting museums when they reopen. I gave him a list of the places that we should go to.
I told him I woke up on the right side of the bed this morning. “Art therapy does a lot to me,” I told him. “Art really helps no?” he remarked.
I am not your typical Filipino since I’m not really that interested in going to the US even for a visit. I mean it’s a lot of hassle getting the visa and all. I only entertained the idea because of J. But otherwise it’s not a priority. If I get seconded to our New York office (two-week trip for senior staff), I’m just interested in visiting museums, seeing musicals and straight plays, and eat. That’s it. My older sister did a three-week European trip in 2019 to see museums there because she was already running out of ideas. She was stumped and her painting stopped for a while. I want to do that trip as well. The girls are older now and since we will be moving closer to my mom, the girls can stay with her if I’m away for two to three weeks. I can do that during spring, when they’re on their summer vacation from school. They’re the reason why I limit my trips within Asia. I only can be away for a week or less than two weeks. Once I was away for 11 days (Japan), they were asking and crying why was I away for so long?
Let’s see if I can go to a photography exhibit this weekend.